Analysts Wedbush, which
<https://9to5mac.com/2020/06/25/iphone-12-september-launch/> previously
predicted that Apple would go ahead with a September launch for the
<https://9to5mac.com/guides/iphone-12/> iPhone 12, says it still expects
this to happen, but doesn't expect all models to be available for purchase
until October.
We've previously outlined the
<https://9to5mac.com/2020/06/10/iphone-12-volume-production-expected-to-begi
n-in-july-digitimes/> three possible scenarios for this year's iPhone
launch, due to the impact of the <https://9to5mac.com/guides/coronavirus/>
coronavirus crisis on production and testing earlier in the year.
First, hold the keynote in September, with immediate but limited
availability of all models. The Pro models would be likely to shift quickly
to back-order status, with lengthy delays before delivery.
Second, take the same approach as the iPhone X and XR: go ahead with the
September keynote, with one or more models available immediately, others
going on sale at a later date.
Third, delay the keynote to October, so there is decent immediate
availability of all models.
Wedbush previously rejected the third possibility, but otherwise hedged its
bets. But the firm's latest note to investors now favors the second of these
scenarios.
The supply chain getting back to normalization ahead of expectations has
been impressive and now ultimately puts Cook & Co. back in the drivers seat
to launch this 5G cycle in its typical mid-late September timeframe with the
smartphones hitting the shelves/website by early October.
The company doesn't, though, make any specific predictions about which
models will be available when.
Wedbush has long seen China as a key driver for 5G iPhone sales, and says it
expects Apple to be working hard to compete at all levels, from the
mid-range iPhone SE to its upcoming flagships.
China remains a key ingredient in Apple's recipe for success as we estimate
roughly 20% of iPhone upgrades will be coming from this region over the
coming year. We believe in China alone between 60 million to 70 million
iPhones are in the window of an upgrade opportunity over the next year with
Apple going aggressively at all price points (SE, iPhone 12) to cement its
installed base despite competitive pressures from domestic players.
The analyst has raised its 12-month price target for AAPL from $425 to $450.
The latest challenge faced by China is
<https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-floods-idUSKCN24E0NN?taid=5f0c46e5
56bb3f0001f2fbaa&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAn
them&utm_source=twitter> severe flooding, with literally hundreds of rivers
now above their warning levels. It's unclear at present whether there might
be an impact on manufacturing in the country.
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