I'm not sure the singularity is even possible, and if it is, I put
little stock in any attempt to predict when it'll happen or what a
post-singularity world will look like. The systems involved are just
too chaotic to predict with any kind of reliability.
That said, I think cog in the machine style manual labor is largely
obsolete and what tasks haven't been handed over to a machine yet are
only because they've yet to build a machine that can do it or because
the initial cost of the machine is still more expensive than the human
workers it would replace. It's a good thing that a single farmer
driving a combine harvester can clear many acres in a fraction of the
time an army of farm hands can clear a single acre with sickles. It's
a good thing that a book can be uploaded to the internet and
distributed to millions of readers in less time than it takes a scribe
to make a single copy by hand. It's a good thing various types of mass
production equipment allow a single operator to produce thousands of
units with consistent quality in less time than it takes a skilled
artisan to make one. If not for advancements like these, most of us
would probably still be living on small, family farms and working from
dawn to dusk most of the time just to keep food in our bellies and
clothes on our backs.
Granted, as much as such advances make modern living possible, I'll
admit they aren't always good for those who made a living doing the
work now done by such machines, and while it's easy to say "just learn
to program", not everyone has the right mind set to do so, need a
means of feeding themselves in the meantime, and with how technology
advances, training skills that are marketable now is no guarantee of
finding a job when you finish whatever training program you enroll in.
Still, I think the problem isn't so much technology eliminating
trudgery as society insisting people work for even the most basic of
human needs and being quick to dismiss those who don't work as lazy
when the reason they don't work is that there's no local demand for
their skills and they lack the means to either move where the demand
is or to retrain in skills that are in demand. I'm personally in favor
of a Universal Basic Income or other social programs to ensure
everyone can meet at least their survival and safety needs and can put
their time towards more personally meaningful endeavors instead of
wasting most of their waking hours at a job they hate because it's
what will keep food on the table and bill collectors off their backs,
but setting aside the logistics, good luck convincing the powers that
be that helping people stuck in wage slavery and the unemployable is
something worth doing.
On the more positive side, technology has made it easier than ever for
artisans to make their goods available. With computers and various
software, an author, artist, or musician can create their work
digitally, easily make corrections to find details or even produce
variations of the same work all without need of paper, ink, paint,
brush, or any of other myriad materials. With the Internet, they can
upload their work and reach a large audience for little to no cost and
without the need of a publisher to mass produce prints or records.
With 3-D printing, sculptors and inventors can hold physical copies of
their work in hand without needing to know how to make it themselves
or needing to find a crafter who does. Actually making a living at
these is still hard, but the barrier to entry is much lower than it
was in the pre-digital days, and one no longer needs to either
bewealthy or have the backing of a patron or publisher to reach an
audience, and even if the audience is small, digital distribution both
allows the consumer to pay less and the creator to get a larger share
of the price without the middle man of publishing and the cost of
making physical copies.
Also, while mass production and rapid prototyping are nice, allowing
for goods to reach the masses and creators to design without the
limitations of working actual material, I do think there is still
value in hand-made goods even with the slight imperfections that tend
to crop up when even a master crafter tries to make two of the same
item.
In an ideal world, we'd all have Star Trek style replicators, all
refuse would be broken down to be used by the replicators, and we'd
have a robust enough Fusion-powered grid that everyone could use their
replicator as much as they like without needing to pay anything to a
profit-oriented electric company, but assuming such replicators are
even possible, the technical issues to reach that point are staggering
and the political nd cordinational issues might make the technical
issues look easy.
For the record, I say this as a degree holding Computer Scientist
living in an area with no tech jobs and who is very grateful to
recieve enough in disability benefits he doesn't have to resort to
retail, food service, or manual labor to make ends meet. Aside from
computers, my hobbies include writing and crafts, the former which
nets me a little extra cash, the latter I'd like to turn into a
money-making or at least self-sustaining hobby, but my locale makes
selling face-to-face hard, and the logistics of selling material goods
online intimidate me.
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Mike Ray, list creator, January 2013
